Mortality in members of HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Africa and implications for antiretroviral therapy initiation: Results of analyses from a multicenter randomized trial

Table 2 Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models of predictors of death attributed to medical causes among HIV-1 infected participants

	Events	P-Y	Incidence	HR (95%CI)	P	aHR (95%CI)	P
CD4 cell count
>500	10	2062	4.8	ref		Ref
350-499	20	1532	13.1	2.7 (1.2, 5.6)	.013	2.2 (1.0, 4.9)	.053
250-349	23	1154	19.9	4.1 (1.9, 8.6)	<.001	2.6 (1.2, 5.9)	.018
<250	18	422	42.7	8.0 (3.6, 17.7)	<.001	3.5 (1.4, 8.5)	.005
Plasma HIV-1 RNA
<10 K	19	2465	7.7	ref		Ref
10 K-50 K	5	1340	3.7	0.5 (0.2, 1.2)	.12	0.5 (0.2, 1.3)	.15
50 K-100 K	7	503	13.9	1.7 (0.7, 4.1)	.21	1.4 (0.6, 3.6)	.42
>100 K	40	853	46.9	5.7 (3.2, 10.0)	<.001	†5.8 (2.9, 11.4)	<.001
Antiretroviral use
No	60	4973	12.1	ref		ref
Yes	11	197	55.8	5.6 (2.7, 11.5)	<.001	†9.8 (4.1, 23.8)	.001
WHO HIV Stage
1-2	36	4143	8.7	Ref		ND
3	24	988	24.3	3.1 (1.8, 5.1)	<.001
4	11	39	282.1	15.7 (6.3, 39.4)	<.001
Gender
Men	28	1708	16.4	Ref		Ref
Women	43	3462	12.4	0.7 (0.4, 1.1)	.12	0.9 (0.6, 1.5)	.79
Age
18-25	8	736	10.9	Ref		ND
26-35	29	2417	12.0	1.2 (0.5, 2.6)	.67
36+	34	2015	16.9	1.7 (0.8, 3.6)	.21
Type of housing
Formal	38	3050	12.5	ref		ND
Informal	32	2001	16.0	1.6 (1.0, 2.7)	.071
Arm
Placebo	38	2562	14.8	Ref		ref
Acyclovir	33	2607	12.7	0.8 (0.5, 1.3)	.44	1.0 (0.6, 1.6)	.99

HR hazard ratio, N number of deaths, ND not done, NS non-significant in the multivariate model, P-Y person-years. Covariates CD4 count, VL, Antiretroviral use, and WHO stage were all time-varying.
† An interaction term was also present in the model between high VL and ART (p = .004), demonstrating that the hazard of death associated with HIV viral load >100 K is no greater than with viral load <10 K for those on ART (p = .42).

ISSN: 1471-2334