Table 1 Projected impact from microbicide intervention*
| Â | Mean efficacies | Low efficacies | High efficacies | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(54% HIV efficacy and 71% HSV-2 efficacy) | (8% HIV efficacy and 30% HSV-2 efficacy) | (83% HIV efficacy and 97% HSV-2 efficacy) | ||||
| Â | Trial consistency of gel use (72%) | Reduced consistency of gel use (used in 50% of sex-acts) | Trial consistency of gel use (72%) | Reduced consistency of gel use (used in 50% of sex-acts) | Trial consistency of gel use (72%) | Reduced consistency of gel use (used in 50% of sex-acts) |
HIV impact projections*: | ||||||
Percentage reduction in population HIV incidence by year 15 | 12.5% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 19.0% | 13.3% |
(11.5-12.7%) | (8–8.8%) | (1.8-2.0%) | (1.3-1.4%) | (17.6-19.3%) | (12.3-13.5%) | |
Cumulative number of HIV infections averted over 15 years | 55,366 | 38,382 | 8,661 | 6,011 | 85,026 | 58,900 |
(49,309-58,173) | (34,132-40,297) | (7,708-9,255) | (5,348-6,422) | (75,845-89,447) | (52,447-61,890) | |
Cumulative number of HIV infections averted per 100,000 population | 970 | 672 | 152 | 105 | 1,489 | 1,031 |
(864-1,019) | (598-706) | (132-162) | (94-112) | (1,328-1,560) | (918-1,084) | |
Number of sex-acts protected by gel per HIV infection averted | 1,317 | 1,896 | 8,372 | 12,060 | 861 | 1,239 |
(1,266-1,481) | (1,853-2,133) | (8,176-9,257) | (11,779-13,338) | (839–966) | (1,209-1,392) | |
HSV-2 impact projections*: | ||||||
Percentage reduction in population HSV-2 incidence in year 15 | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% |
(4.7-5.5%) | (3.2-3.7%) | (1.5-1.8%) | (1.0-1.2%) | (6.8-7.9%) | (4.6-5.4%) | |
Cumulative number of HSV-2 infections averted over 15 years | 83,997 (76,312-88,153) | 57,343 (52,139-60,191) | 27,181 (24,537-28,617) | 18,723 (16,930-19,711) | 121,846 (110,559-127,721) | 82,662 (75,047-86,655) |
Cumulative number of HSV-2 infections averted per 100,000 population | 1,471 | 1,004 | 476 | 327 | 2,133 | 1,447 |
(1,336-1,543) | (913-1,054) | (430-501) | (296-345) | (1,936-2,236) | (1,314-1,518) | |
Number of sex-acts protected by gel per HSV-2 infection averted | 868 | 1,269 | 2,668 | 3,872 | 601 | 883 |
(831-977) | (1,213-1,428) | (2,566-2,994) | (3,721-4,346) | (575-677) | (845-994) | |