Figure 8

Model Calibration using data collected during the 2003 DENV2 outbreak. Panel A pictures the weekly case numbers. Panel B represents the cumulative number of cases. Some (7/60) stochastic realizations did not result in further transmission (index case being the only case). These were excluded in the present analysis. Black circles denote the observed outbreak data; black solid lines denote the best stochastic realisation; dotted lines, dark grey and light grey areas denote the median, interquartile range and 95% confidence interval of the remaining 53/60 stochastic realisations, respectively. The black vertical lines show the onset of control interventions (day 43 after the index case). The median total number of predicted cases was 420 (17–804), while the observed number of cases was 386.