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Table 2 Sensitivity of the model to A: Main model parameters and B: Alternate settings

From: A spatial simulation model for dengue virus infection in urban areas

A

 

2003

2008/2009

Parameter variation

+50%

-50%

+50%

-50%

Biting rate

1261 (717–1719)

48 (10–117)

2471 (1984–2930)

14 (2–61)

Asymptomatic fraction

362 (172–527)

516 (165–818)

743 (370–938)

698 (100–1086)

Mosquito to human transmission probability

461 (138–746)

217 (18–349)

794 (4–1183)

194 (3–390)

Human to mosquito transmission probability

564 (291–828)

355 (160–538)

880 (501–1355)

439 (25–779)

B

Alternate Setting

No mosquito mobility

34 (6–152)

99 (3–421)

No human mobility

104 (28–184)

19 (6–58)

No state of emergency

N/A

1479 (440–2202)

Index cell with low mosquito density

12 (1–26)

4 (1–30)

  1. The values in the table appearing in bold are medians of 60 simulations, with 95% confidence intervals given in parentheses. For comparison the predicted case number without any parameter variation for 2003 and 2008/2009 were 420 (71 – 682) and 692 (174 – 1029) respectively (see e.g. Figure 9 A and D in the main manuscript).