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Table 4 Summaries of fits from multivariate models described by Table 3 and Figure 1. Except as noted, area is San Francisco and sex is female.

From: Estimating past hepatitis C infection risk from reported risk factor histories: implications for imputing age of infection and modeling fibrosis progression

       

WIHS Model

UHS Model

  

Age of Infection

   

Age of Infection

 

Age of Infection

Scenario

Year of Birth

First IDU

Last IDU

HCV Ab + Test

Daily IDU

Race/Ethnicity

Probability First IDU Accurate*

Fitted Mean

Bias†

Probability First IDU Accurate*

Fitted Mean

Bias†

1

1960

12

40

40

No

Caucasian

0.38

17.5

-5.5

0.52

15.2

-3.2

2

1940

12

60

60

No

Caucasian

0.07

29.2

-17.2

0.18

22.4

-10.4

3

1960

35

40

40

No

Caucasian

0.66

34.7

0.3

0.39

26.5

8.5

4

1940

35

60

60

No

Caucasian

0.74

35.5

-0.5

0.47

32.3

2.7

5

1943

14

50

52

Yes

Hispanic

0.30

21.9

-7.9

0.58

16.2

-2.2

6

1943

14

50

52

No

Caucasian

0.19

25.4

-11.4

0.33

20.5

-6.5

7

1972

21

22

22

Yes

Hispanic

0.96

21.2

-0.2

0.71

18.5

2.5

8

1977

16

18

18

Yes

Caucasian

0.83

16.7

-0.7

0.81

15.5

0.5

9

1942

56

57

57

Yes

African American

0.09

34.3

21.7

0.07

31.4

24.6

10

1917

15

70

70

Yes

African American

0.01

41.2

-26.2

0.01

39.4

-24.4

2 – LA‡

1940

12

60

60

No

Caucasian

0.07

29.6

-17.6

   

9 – LA‡

1942

56

57

57

Yes

African American

0.09

34.4

21.6

   

2 – Ch§

1940

12

60

60

No

Caucasian

0.09

28.0

-16.0

   

9 – Ch§

1942

56

57

57

Yes

African American

0.08

34.0

22.0

   

2 – Male

1940

12

60

60

No

Caucasian

   

0.14

24.1

-12.1

9 – Male

1942

56

57

57

Yes

African American

   

0.08

32.0

24.0

  1. * Fitted probability that infection occurred in either the year of first IDU or the year after.
  2. † Age at first IDU minus the predicted mean age of infection from the model for that scenario.
  3. ‡ Los Angeles area § Chicago area