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Table 1 Parameter estimates used in the scenario tree analysis of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance in Australia

From: An evaluation of the sensitivity of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance for poliovirus infection in Australia

Node

Category

Probability or proportion

Jurisdiction

ACT

0.016

 

NSW

0.330

 

NT

0.010

 

QLD

0.197

 

SA

0.076

 

TAS

0.024

 

VIC

0.248

 

WA

0.099

Age

<5 years

 
 

   ACT

0.062

 

   NSW

0.064

 

   NT

0.082

 

   QLD

0.066

 

   SA

0.058

 

   TAS

0.060

 

   VIC

0.062

 

   WA

0.064

 

5 to <15 years

 
 

   ACT

0.129

 

   NSW

0.134

 

   NT

0.165

 

   QLD

0.141

 

   SA

0.128

 

   TAS

0.137

 

   VIC

0.131

 

   WA

0.139

Proportion immune

Immune

 
 

   <5 years

(0.85,0.91,0.95)†

 

   5 to <15 years

(0.81,0.87,0.91)†

 

   15+ years

(0.75,0.80,0.85)†

Infection status

Infected

0.00001

Acute Flaccid Paralysis

Yes

 
 

   <5 years

(0.001,0.005,0.01)†

 

   5 to <15 years

(0.005,0.01,0.02)†

 

   15+ years

(0.005,0.01,0.02)†

Notified

Yes

 
 

   ACT

Beta(1.3,61931.7)‡

 

   NSW

Beta(18.5,1298900.5)

 

   NT

Beta(2.2,47604.8)‡

 

   QLD

Beta(11.3,806522.7)‡

 

   SA

Beta(2.7,280823.3)‡

 

   TAS

Beta(1.7,94022.3)‡

 

   VIC

Beta(6.2,950388.8)‡

 

   WA

Beta(2.7,396433.3)‡

Stool sample

Yes

 
 

   ACT

Beta(2,2)

 

   NSW

Beta(23,84)

 

   NT

Beta(1,8)

 

   QLD

Beta(29,35)

 

   SA

Beta(3,9)

 

   TAS

Beta(2,4)

 

   VIC

Beta(10,23)

 

   WA

Beta(4,8)

Test

Positive

(0.95,0.97,0.99)†

  1. †Beta-PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) distribution (lower, most likely, upper)
  2. ‡Calculated as the ratio of this beta distribution divided by 10-5, with the result constrained to have an upper limit of 1.