Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of potential non-synchronous cessation

Table 1 Setting-specific model inputs for Analyses II and III, adapted from the global model [4] and adopting all other global model assumptions, including generic inputs from the DEB model.[16, 17]

Region	R₀	α	pd	κ	tr	POL3	TC	P_rm	p^oro	# tOPV SIAs in 2015	Year of IPV introduction	Hypothetical switch date
Analysis II:
Hypothetical population	10 or 13	0	NA	0.35	0.6	0.3	0.8	0.7	0.3	2	2015	Variable after last SIA in 2015
Analysis III:
Population like northern India	13	0.2	180	0.35	0.6				0.3	2	2015
- Pop. A, subpop. 0 (under-vacc.)						0.3	0.8	0.7				Mid-2015
- Pop. A, subpop. 1 (general)						0.6	0.95	0.5				Mid-2015
- Pop. B, subpop. 0 (under-vacc.)						0.3	0.8	0.7				April 1, 2016
- Pop. B, subpop 1 (general)						0.6	0.95	0.5				April 1, 2016
Population like northern Pakistan/Afghanistan	11	0.2	180	0.35	0.65				0.3		2015
- Pop. A, subpop. 0 (general)						0.6	0.8	0.7		2		Mid-2015
- Pop. A, subpop. 1 (general)						0.6	0.8	0.7		2		Mid-2015
- Pop. B, subpop. 0 (under-vacc.)						0.1	0.35	0.95		3		April 1, 2016
- Pop. B, subpop 1 (general)						0.6	0.8	0.7		2		April 1, 2016
Population like Ukraine	6	0.4	180	0.45	0.74				0.8	0	2005
- Pop. A, subpop. 0 (general)						0.7^a	0.8	0.7				Mid-2015
- Pop. A, subpop. 1 (general)						0.7^a	0.8	0.7				Mid-2015
- Pop. B, subpop. 0 (under-vacc.)						0.3 ^a	0.8	0.7				April 1, 2016
- Pop. B, subpop 1 (under-vacc. )						0.3^a	0.8	0.7				April 1, 2016

Model input symbols: [3, 16] R ₀ average annual basic reproduction number for WPV of serotype 1, α seasonal amplitude of R₀, defined as the “proportional change in R₀ due to seasonality” [16, p. 717], pd peak day of R₀, κ strength of preferential mixing between age groups, defined as the “proportion of contacts reserved for individuals within the same mixing age group”[16, p. 717], tr take rate of serotype 2 tOPV, POL3 RI coverage with 3 or more non-birth doses, TC true coverage of each SIA, P _rm repeated missed probability of each SIA, p^oro, proportion of transmissions via oropharyngeal route
^aAssume POL3 = 90 % prior to 2010

ISSN: 1471-2334