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Table 1 Populations modeled and tabulated selected results from Fig. 2 (Analysis I)

From: Implementation of coordinated global serotype 2 oral poliovirus vaccine cessation: risks of inadvertent trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine use

Population with properties like

Properties

Minimum time (years) since switch when inadvertent tOPV use in an SIA leads to a cVDPV2 outbreak for indicated inadvertent tOPV SIA coverage

Income level

R0 a

poro

tr

POL3

# tOPV SIAs (2015–2016)

TC

Prm

dt

0.1 %

0.5 %

1 %

Inadvertent tOPV coverage (given in parentheses) leading to shortest minimum time

Hypothetical population

Lower middle

 

0.3

0.6

0.3

4

0.8

0.7

1

    

- High R0

 

13b

       

1.2

0.83

0.72

0.47 (0.15)

- Lower R0

 

10b

       

1.8

1.3

1.1

0.86 (0.15)

Northern India

Lower middle

13c

0.3

0.6

 

6

  

1

    

- Under-vaccinated

    

0.3

 

0.8

0.7

 

1.2

0.88

0.82

0.65 (0.2)

- General

    

0.6

 

0.95

0.5

 

1.7

0.95

0.87

0.71 (0.2)

Northern Pakistan/Afghanistan

Low

11c

0.3

0.65

    

3

    

- Under-vaccinated

    

0.1

5

0.35

0.95

 

0.94

0.76

0.7

0.52 (0.15)

- General

    

0.6

4

0.8

0.7

 

1.8

0.99

0.91

0.75 (0.2)

Northern Nigeria

Lower middle

8d

0.3

0.7

 

7

       

- Under-vaccinated

    

0.05

 

0.15

0.95

3

1.5

0.8

0.7

0.51 (0.1)

- General

    

3

 

0.8

0.7

2

1.9

1.6

1.5

1.3 (0.1)

Ukraine

Upper middle

6e

0.8

0.74

 

0

0.8

0.7

3

    

- Under-vaccinated

    

0.3f

    

2.9

1.8

0.93

0.82 (0.1)

- General

    

0.7f

    

32

12

8.9

6.7 (0.1)

  1. Abbreviations: cVDPV2 serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus, RI routine immunization, SIA supplemental immunization activity, tOPV trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine, WPV wild poliovirus
  2. Model input symbols: [8, 16] R 0 average annual basic reproduction number for WPV of serotype 1, tr take rate of serotype 2 tOPV, POL3 RI coverage with 3 or more non-birth doses, TC true coverage of each SIA, p oro proportion of transmissions via oropharyngeal route, dt detection threshold (cumulative paralytic polio cases per 10 million people until outbreak detection occurs)
  3. aThe model uses R0 for serotype 1 WPV to characterize variability in subpopulations; R0 for serotype 2 WPV equals 0.9 times the values shown in this column
  4. bNo seasonality
  5. cSeasonal amplitude in R0 of 20 % with peak on 180th day of each year
  6. dSeasonal amplitude in R0 of 10 % with peak on 120th day of each year
  7. eSeasonal amplitude in R0 of 40 % with peak on 180th day of each year
  8. fAssume POL3 = 90 % prior to 2010