Population with properties like | Properties | Minimum time (years) since switch when inadvertent tOPV use in an SIA leads to a cVDPV2 outbreak for indicated inadvertent tOPV SIA coverage | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income level | R0 a | poro | tr | POL3 | # tOPV SIAs (2015–2016) | TC | Prm | dt | 0.1 % | 0.5 % | 1 % | Inadvertent tOPV coverage (given in parentheses) leading to shortest minimum time | |
Hypothetical population | Lower middle | Â | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1 | Â | Â | Â | Â |
- High R0 | Â | 13b | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | 1.2 | 0.83 | 0.72 | 0.47 (0.15) |
- Lower R0 | Â | 10b | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.86 (0.15) |
Northern India | Lower middle | 13c | 0.3 | 0.6 | Â | 6 | Â | Â | 1 | Â | Â | Â | Â |
- Under-vaccinated | Â | Â | Â | Â | 0.3 | Â | 0.8 | 0.7 | Â | 1.2 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.65 (0.2) |
- General | Â | Â | Â | Â | 0.6 | Â | 0.95 | 0.5 | Â | 1.7 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.71 (0.2) |
Northern Pakistan/Afghanistan | Low | 11c | 0.3 | 0.65 | Â | Â | Â | Â | 3 | Â | Â | Â | Â |
- Under-vaccinated | Â | Â | Â | Â | 0.1 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.95 | Â | 0.94 | 0.76 | 0.7 | 0.52 (0.15) |
- General | Â | Â | Â | Â | 0.6 | 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | Â | 1.8 | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.75 (0.2) |
Northern Nigeria | Lower middle | 8d | 0.3 | 0.7 | Â | 7 | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
- Under-vaccinated | Â | Â | Â | Â | 0.05 | Â | 0.15 | 0.95 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.51 (0.1) |
- General | Â | Â | Â | Â | 3 | Â | 0.8 | 0.7 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 (0.1) |
Ukraine | Upper middle | 6e | 0.8 | 0.74 | Â | 0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 3 | Â | Â | Â | Â |
- Under-vaccinated | Â | Â | Â | Â | 0.3f | Â | Â | Â | Â | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.93 | 0.82 (0.1) |
- General | Â | Â | Â | Â | 0.7f | Â | Â | Â | Â | 32 | 12 | 8.9 | 6.7 (0.1) |