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Table 1 Bivariable association of need for ART change and potential predictor characteristics

From: Predicting resistance as indicator for need to switch from first-line antiretroviral therapy among patients with elevated viral loads: development of a risk score algorithm

Predictor

Overall (n = 290) N (%)

Resistant (n = 75)a N (%)

Not resistant or resuppressed (n = 215) N (%)

Unadjusted prevalence OR (95 % CI)

p-value

Age, years

    

0.09

  ≤ 30

82 (28.3)

27 (36.0)

55 (25.6)

1.64 (0.93–2.87)

 

  > 30

208 (71.7)

48 (64.0)

160 (74.4)

1.0

 

Sex

    

0.3

 Male

154 (53.1)

36 (48.0)

118 (54.9)

0.76 (0.45, 1.28)

 

 Female

136 (46.9)

39 (28.7)

97 (71.3)

1.0

 

BMI, kg/m2

    

0.002

 Normal/low (<24.9)

229 (79.0)

50 (21.8)

179 (78.2)

1.0

 

 High (>25.0)

31 (21.0)

25 (41.0)

36 (59.0)

2.48 (1.37–4.52)

 

CD4 at screening, cells/mm3

    

0.12

  ≤ 100

84 (71.0)

27 (36.0)

57 (26.5)

1.56 (0.89, 2.73)

 

  > 100

206 (29.0)

48 (23.3)

158 (76.7)

1.0

 

Treatment initiation VL, copies/ml

    

0.001

  ≤ 100,000

135 (46.6)

23 (17.0)

112 (83.0)

1.0

 

  > 100,000

155 (53.4)

52 (33.5)

103 (66.5)

2.46 (1.41, 4.30)

 

AIDS history

    

0.55

 Yes

26 (9.0)

8 (30.8)

18 (69.2)

1.31 (0.54–3.14)

 

 No

264 (91.0)

67 (25.4)

197 (74.6)

1.0

 

History of ART exposure

    

0.02

 Yes

4 (1.4)

3 (75.0)

1 (25.0)

8.92 (0.91–87.1)

 

 No

286 (98.6)

72 (25.2)

214 (74.8)

1.0

 

History of TB

    

0.14

 Yes

60 (20.7)

11 (18.3)

49 (81.7)

1.0

 

 No

230 (79.3)

64 (27.8)

166 (72.2)

1.72 (0.84–3.51)

 

Reported symptoms

    

0.22

 Yes

37 (71.2)

11 (29.7)

26 (70.3)

2.75 (0.53–14.3)

 

 No

15 (28.9)

2 (13.3)

13 (86.7)

1.0

 

Imperfect adherence

    

0.11

 Yes

67 (25.6)

22 (32.8)

45 (67.2)

1.63 (0.89, 3.00)

 

 No

195 (74.4)

45 (23.1)

150 (76.9)

1.0

 

Pill count, % taken

    

0.29

  < 80 %

11 (22.4)

6 (54.5)

5 (45.5)

2.06 (0.53, 8.00)

 

  ≥ 80 %

38 (77.6)

14 (36.8)

24 (63.2)

1.0

 

Regimen frequency

    

0.84

 Once daily (FTC/TDF/EFV QHS)

144 (49.7)

38 (26.4)

106 (73.6)

1.06 (0.62, 1.79)

 

 Twice daily (3TC/ZDV BID + EFV QHS)

146 (50.3)

37 (25.3)

109 (74.7)

1.0

 

Time on therapy, monthsb

    

<0.001

  < 7

102 (35.2)

42 (41.2)

60 (58.8)

5.1 (2.6–9.8)

 

 7–12

56 (19.3)

17 (30.4)

39 (69.6)

3.2 (1.5–6.8)

 

  > 12

132 (45.5)

16 (12.1)

116 (87.9)

1.0

 

VLc, copies/ml

    

<0.001

  ≤ 10,000

175 (60.4)

25 (14.3)

150 (85.7)

1.0

 

 10,001–100,000

70 (24.1)

34 (48.6)

36 (51.4)

5.7 (3.0–10.7)

 

  > 100,000

45 (15.5)

16 (35.6)

29 (64.4)

3.3 (1.6–6.9)

 

CD4 at failure, cells/mm3

    

0.18

  ≤ 200

77 (27.6)

24 (31.2)

53 (68.8)

1.49 (0.83–2.7)

 

  > 200

202 (72.4)

47 (23.3)

155 (76.7)

1.0

 

Any change in therapy during study

    

0.28

 Yes

42 (14.5)

8 (19.1)

34 (80.1)

0.64 (0.38–1.4)

 

 No

248 (85.5)

67 (27.0)

181 (73.0)

1.0

 
  1. aResistance indicates identified NRTI or NNRTI resistance mutations detected on stored specimens at time of first elevated (>1000 copies/ml) viral load
  2. bTherapy duration defined by days, <7 months is <213; 7–12 months is 212–395, >12 months is >395 days
  3. cViral load at time of first VL ≥1000 copies/ml
  4. 3TC lamivudine, ART antiretroviral therapy, BID twice daily, BMI body-mass index, CI confidence interval, EFV efavirenz, FTC emtricitabine, NNRTI non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, NRTI nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, OR odds ratio, QHS nightly, TB tuberculosis, TDF tenofovir, VL viral load, ZDV zidovudine