Fig. 3

Countries at high risk of case importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). List of the 30 countries with the estimated highest importation risks by 3 September 2015. The panel a shows the prediction that used the effective distance only with the best predictive value as assessed by the area under the curve (AUC; model 1). The panel b shows the prediction using a model that used the effective distance as well as religion and incidence data of MERS in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (model 4). The model 4 yielded a smaller value of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as compared with the model without incorporating religion information, and was regarded as a model with good fit. Bars filled with black are used to denote those countries that have already experienced at least one MERS importation by 26 June 2015