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Table 9 Notation Table II

From: A framework for evaluating epidemic forecasts

Symbol

Definition

X

Random variable X (or X t ) that is the predicted estimate of a data point at one week(t th week)

f(x)|f x

Probability density function (pdf) of random variable X

μ x

Mean value for the random variable X

\(\sigma _{x} = \sigma /{\sqrt {N_{x}}}\)

Standard deviation for the random variable X

\(\overline {x}\)

Mean value of the samples belonging to random variable X

σ

Standard deviation of the samples belonging to random variable X

v

v=N x −1 Degree of freedom of t-distribution

\( \bar {y} \)

\(\bar {y}=\frac {1}{n} \sum _{t=1}^{n} (y_{t}) \) : the mean for y values over n weeks

S x ={s i }

where s i is the sample from distribution f x

\(N_{s_{x}} = |S_{x}| \)

Number of sample set S x

Y

Random variable Y (or Y t ) that is the estimate of observed value at one week(t th week)

g(y)|g y

Probability density function (pdf) of random variable Y

S y ={s j }

where s j is the sample from distribution g x