Fig. 1
ZIKV emergence scenarios. A ZIKV infection could spark (a) a self-limiting outbreak or (b) a growing epidemic. Cases are partitioned into symptomatic (grey) and asymptomatic (black). Arrows indicate new ZIKV importations by infected travelers and vertical dashed lines indicate case reporting events. On the 75th day, these divergent scenarios are almost indistinguishable to public health surveillance, as exactly three cases have been detected in both. By the 100th day, the outbreak (a) has died out with 21 total infections while the epidemic (b) continues to grow with already 67 total infections. Each scenario is a single stochastic realization of the model with R 0 = 1.1, reporting rate of 10%, and introduction rate of 0.1 case/day