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Table 2 Explanatory variables used in the risk score to assess poliomyelitis outbreak risk, based on a regression analysis of data from 2003 to 2016

From: An assessment of the geographical risks of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa and Asia

Variable

Factor

p-value

Risk estimate (95% CI)

Risk score

Population immunity

 Under-immunised

0–20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0–2 OPV doses

 

baseline

0

>20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0–2 OPV doses

0.180

1.48 (0.84, 2.61)

1

 Zero dose

0–20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0 OPV doses

 

baseline

0

>20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0 OPV doses

0.427

0.4 (0.04, 3.82)

1

 Routine immunisation

80–100% of children under 2 with 3 DPT doses

 

baseline

0

<80% of children under 2 with 3 DPT doses

0.023

2.64 (1.57, 4.45)

1

Exposure to poliomyelitis

 Bordering countries with wild poliomyelitis in last 6 months

No

 

baseline

0

Yes

<0.001

4.77 (2.31, 9.88)

1

 Migration and wild exposure

Low

 

baseline

0

Medium

0.060

1.77 (0.98, 3.2)

1

High

<0.001

5.58 (2.93, 10.65)

1

 Migration and wild poliomyelitis exposure - expert opinion

Limited evidence of wild poliomyelitis exposure

 

baseline

0

Evidence of wild poliomyelitis exposure

not tested

not tested

1

Susceptibility

 Population displacement

0–10% of population displaced

 

baseline

0

>10% of population displaced

0.116

1.62 (0.89, 2.94)

1

 Diarrhoea-associated mortality

0–199 deaths per 100,000 per year in children <5 years

 

baseline

0

>200 deaths per 100,000 per year in children <5 years

0.001

1.96 (1.1, 3.52)

1

 Previous importations

No wild poliomyelitis importations in previous 4 years

 

baseline

0

Wild poliomyelitis importations in previous 4 years

<0.001

2.75 (1.52, 4.97)

1

 Humanitarian emergencies - expert opinion

None reported

 

baseline

0

Country of concern

not tested

not tested

1