Variable | Factor | p-value | Risk estimate (95% CI) | Risk score |
---|---|---|---|---|
Population immunity | ||||
Under-immunised | 0–20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0–2 OPV doses | baseline | 0 | |
>20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0–2 OPV doses | 0.180 | 1.48 (0.84, 2.61) | 1 | |
Zero dose | 0–20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0 OPV doses | baseline | 0 | |
>20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0 OPV doses | 0.427 | 0.4 (0.04, 3.82) | 1 | |
Routine immunisation | 80–100% of children under 2 with 3 DPT doses | baseline | 0 | |
<80% of children under 2 with 3 DPT doses | 0.023 | 2.64 (1.57, 4.45) | 1 | |
Exposure to poliomyelitis | ||||
Bordering countries with wild poliomyelitis in last 6 months | No | baseline | 0 | |
Yes | <0.001 | 4.77 (2.31, 9.88) | 1 | |
Migration and wild exposure | Low | baseline | 0 | |
Medium | 0.060 | 1.77 (0.98, 3.2) | 1 | |
High | <0.001 | 5.58 (2.93, 10.65) | 1 | |
Migration and wild poliomyelitis exposure - expert opinion | Limited evidence of wild poliomyelitis exposure | baseline | 0 | |
Evidence of wild poliomyelitis exposure | not tested | not tested | 1 | |
Susceptibility | ||||
Population displacement | 0–10% of population displaced | baseline | 0 | |
>10% of population displaced | 0.116 | 1.62 (0.89, 2.94) | 1 | |
Diarrhoea-associated mortality | 0–199 deaths per 100,000 per year in children <5 years | baseline | 0 | |
>200 deaths per 100,000 per year in children <5 years | 0.001 | 1.96 (1.1, 3.52) | 1 | |
Previous importations | No wild poliomyelitis importations in previous 4 years | baseline | 0 | |
Wild poliomyelitis importations in previous 4 years | <0.001 | 2.75 (1.52, 4.97) | 1 | |
Humanitarian emergencies - expert opinion | None reported | baseline | 0 | |
Country of concern | not tested | not tested | 1 |