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Table 1 Estimated burden of viable and dead Mtb and rates of killing, assuming different rates of DNA clearance among Ugandan patients with drug-susceptible TB

From: Does discovery of differentially culturable M tuberculosis really demand a new treatment paradigm? Longitudinal analysis of DNA clearance from sputum

DNA clearance rate

(days)

Genome equivalent viable Mtb at day 7 a (95% CI)

Genome equivalent dead Mtb at day 7 b (95% CI)

Reduction in viable Mtb by day 7

Change point in daysc

(95% CI)

Early rate of killing d(log10/day)

Late rate of killing e(log10/day)

% decrease in rate of killing f

p-val for difference in rates

log10

%

0

4.4

(3.6, 5.2)

0

−1.6

(− 2.3, − 0.9)

97.2%

(85.8, 99.5)

8.8

(3.3, 14.2)

−0.22

(− 0.32, − 0.12)

−0.07

(− 0.09, − 0.05)

69.4%

0.004

0.5

4.1

(3.2, 4.9)

3.9

(2.2, 5.6)

− 1.9

(− 2.7, − 1.0)

98.6%

(90.2, 99.8)

7

(2.7, 11.3)

−0.26

(− 0.38, − 0.14)

−0.07

(− 0.09, − 0.05)

74.2%

0.002

0.75

4.02

(3.2, 4.8)

4.1

(3.2, 4.9)

−1.9

(− 2.6, − 1.3)

98.7%

(94.3, 99.7)

6.5

(3.4, 9.6)

− 0.29

(− 0.42, − 0.15)

−0.07

(− 0.08, − 0.05)

76.8%

0.003

1

4.0

(3.1, 4.8)

4.2

(3.4, 5.0)

−1.9

(− 2.6, − 1.3)

98.8%

(94.6, 99.7)

5.7

(1.9, 9.6)

− 0.32

(− 0.53, − 0.12)

−0.07

(− 0.08, − 0.05)

79.6%

0.02

1.25

3.9

(3.1, 4.7)

4.4

(3.6, 5.1)

− 1.9

(− 2.6, − 1.3)

98.8%

(94.7, 99.7)

5.0

(0.5, 9.5)

− 0.36

(− 0.67, − 0.05)

−0.06

(− 0.08, − 0.05)

82.2%

0.06

  1. aGenome equivalents Mtb DNA remaining at day 7 expected to be from viable Mtb (log10)
  2. bGenome equivalents Mtb DNA remaining at day 7 expected to be from dead Mtb (log10)
  3. cTime point (in days) of change between early and late killing based on bi-exponential mixed effects models
  4. dRate of decline in genomic equivalents Mtb before change point
  5. eRate of decline in genomic equivalents Mtb after change point
  6. fLate rate of killing relative to early rate of killing