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Table 3 Mean epidemic outcomes of 25 replicates for the “With predictor” and “Without predictor” scenarios in the Montgomery and Miami regions, under three vaccine efficacy levels of 20%, 40% and 60%

From: Impact of demographic disparities in social distancing and vaccination on influenza epidemics in urban and rural regions of the United States

Regions

Epidemic measure

Scenario

Vaccine efficacy

   

20%

40%

60%

Montgomery, VA

Peak Infections (% of total population)

With predictors

0.2

0.08

0.036

  

Without predictors

0.16

0.05

0.033

 

% increase With vs. Without predictors

 

25

60

9.09

 

Peak day

With predictors

81

83

40

  

Without predictors

83

76

37

 

% increase With vs. Without predictors

 

-2.41

9.21

8.10

 

Total infections (% of total population)

With predictors

11.57

4.28

1.23

  

Without predictors

10.07

2.6

0.95

 

% increase With vs. Without predictors

 

14.89

64.61

29.47

Miami, FL

Peak infections (% of total population)

With predictors

0.52

0.33

0.18

  

Without predictors

0.5

0.29

0.153

 

% increase With vs. Without predictors

 

4

13.79

18.3

 

Peak day

With predictors

50

54

58

  

Without predictors

50

56

62

 

% increase With vs. Without predictors

 

0

-3.57

-6.45

 

Total infections (% of total population)

With predictors

16.2

10.86

6.48

  

Without predictors

15.42

9.64

5.37

 

% increase With vs. Without predictors

 

5.05

12.65

20.67

  1. “With predictor” refers to the case where compliance probabilities are derived from the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model and are based on survey participant demographics, whereas “Without predictor” refers to the case where compliance probabilities are equal to mean compliance levels of all participants in the survey, irrespective of their demographics. The highlighted rows show the differences in epidemic outcomes under the two scenarios