Table 4 Base-case scenario and sensitivity analysis results
HZ incidence parameters | Exogenous-Endogenous (%) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100–0 | 75–25 | 50–50 | 25–75 | 0–100 | |
2-year immunity to HZ scenario | |||||
 Decrease in HZ by year 80 (%) | 63.6 | 63.8 | 64.0 | 64.2 | 64.4 |
 Number of years with HZ increase above pre-vaccine rate | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
 Max HZ increase (%) above pre-vaccine rate | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
 Year at max HZ increase | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | NA |
10-year immunity to HZ scenario (base case) | |||||
 Decrease in HZ by year 80 (%) | 62.1 | 63.1 | 64.0 | 64.8 | 65.6 |
 Number of years with HZ increase above pre-vaccine rate | 21 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
 Max HZ increase (%) above pre-vaccine rate | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
 Year at max HZ increase | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | NA |
20-year immunity to HZ scenario | |||||
 Decrease in HZ by year 80 (%) | 60.1 | 61.8 | 63.3 | 64.7 | 66.0 |
 Number of years with HZ increase above pre-vaccine rate | 33 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
 Max HZ increase (%) above pre-vaccine rate | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
 Year at max HZ increase | 19 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 |