Table 3 input parameters and plausible ranges used for sensitivity analysis in the Markov decision tree analysis for maternal and serodiscordant partner outcomes

 CD4 counts at the last testing of PMTCT period

Surveillance data

 Percentage of pregnant women with CD4 count≧350 cells/μl(%)

75.91

 Percentage of pregnant women with CD4 count 200–350 cells/μl(%)

17.21

 Percentage of pregnant women with CD4 count< 200 cells/μl(%)

6.88

 Monthly probability death of off ART, CD4 200-350cells/μl (α₁₁)

0.00272

[16, 23, 24]

 Relative probability death per month off ART, CD4 > 350 vs. 200-350cells/μl (α₂₁:α₁₁)

0.206(0.206–0.258)

 Relative probability death per month off ART, CD4 < 200 vs. 200-350cells/μl (α₃₁:α₁₁)

9.08(3.45–9.08)

 Relative probability death on vs. off ART for the same CD4 counts (α_i2:α_i1)

0.19(0.14–0.25)

Transmission probability

[23]

 Off ART, monthly probability of moving from CD4 > 350 to 200–350 cells/μl

0.0257(0.0119–0.0289)

 Off ART, monthly probability of moving from CD4 200–350 to < 200 cells/μl

0.0188(0.0186–0.0274)

 On ART, monthly probability of moving from CD4 200–350 to > 350 cells/μl

0.0569(0.0247–0.0888)

 On ART, monthly probability of moving from CD4 < 200 to 200–350 cells/μl

0.0293(0.0274–0.0683)

Per vaginal sex act probability of HIV transmission from women to man

[25]

 CD4 > 350cells/μl

0.02(0.01–0.04)

 CD4 200-350cells/μl

0.03(0.01–0.04)

 CD4 < 200cells/μl

0.05(0.03–0.06)

% efficacy of ART in reducing HIV transmission

92(26–99)

[23]

QALY weight HIV-positive on ART or CD4 > 350cells/μl

0.947

[23]

QALY weight HIV-positive CD4 200–350 cells/μl

0.799

[23]

QALY weight HIV-positive CD4 < 200 cells/μl

0.453

[23]

Sex acts per month with regular partner

1–2

[21]

 Provider unit cost ART per year (2016,US$)

3561

[19]