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Table 2 Model calibration: Parameter variation range, calibration formulae and results

From: A hybrid simulation model approach to examine bacterial genome sequencing during a hospital outbreak

Parameter

Parameter calibration rangec

Optimal calibration results

Calibration #2 results

Calibration #3 results

Level 2 Beta valuea

0.001–0.2

0.14

0.094

0.139

Level 5 Beta valuea

0.001–0.2

0.153

0.164

0.185

SIU Beta valuea

0.001–0.2

0.086

0.068

0.08

GARU Beta valuea

0.001–0.2

0.086

0.074

0.089

Lvl5 microbial test prob.b

0.01–0.07

0.041

0.055

0.04

Lvl2 microbial test prob.b

0.01–0.07

0.043

0.047

0.045

SIU microbial test prob.b

0.01–0.07

0.056

0.041

0.041

GARU microbial test prob.b

0.01–0.07

0.055

0.046

0.059

RNG 1 Seed

1–1000

701

457

952

RNG 2 Seed

1–1000

382

697

129

RNG 3 Seed

1–1000

465

810

348

Detected colonizations

Actual outbreak

Optimal calibration

Calibration #2

Calibration #3

Day 69:

Lvl5, Lvl2, GARU, SIU

6, 1, 1, 1

7, 3, 0, 1

8, 0, 0, 1

10, 1, 1, 1

Day 83:

Lvl5, Lvl2, GARU, SIU

11, 3, 1, 4

10, 6, 0, 1

16, 0, 1, 3

12, 1, 2, 1

Day 111:

Lvl5, Lvl2, GARU, SIU

25, 13, 14, 8

21, 10, 5, 8

23, 0, 11, 6

19, 4, 12, 1

Total

72

75

75

73

Calibration Formulaed

abs (Lvl5 day69-AO Lvl5 day69) + abs (Lvl5 day83-AO Lvl5 day83) + abs (Lvl5 day111-AO Lvl5 day111) + abs (Lvl2 day69-AO Lvl2 day69) + abs (Lvl2 day83-AO Lvl2 day83) + abs (Lvl2 day111-AO Lvl2 day111) + abs (GARU day69-AO GARU day69) + abs (GARU day83-AO GARU day83) + abs(GARU day111-AO GARU day111) + abs(SIU day69-AO SIU day69) + abs(SIU day83-AO SIU day83) + abs(SIU day111-AO SIU day111) + abs(Total-AO Total)

  1. Lvl5 Level five, Lvl2 Level two, GARU Geriatric and Rehabilitation Unit, SIU Spinal injury unit, AO Actual outbreak, RNG random number generator, abs absolute value, prob Probability
  2. aBeta value used in transmission formulae, \( 1-\exp \left\{\frac{-\beta C}{N}\right\} \)
  3. bThe daily probability a patient in that floor will be randomly screened
  4. cThe values tested across 50,000 simulations
  5. dDays 69 and 83 were chosen due spikes in colonization detections and day 111 was when the last detection occurred