Explaining age disparities in tuberculosis burden in Taiwan: a modelling study

BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 4 Sources of incident TB cases in the ‘full’ model, 2016

Age groups	Recent infection	Remote infection	Post-treatment recurrence
Children	71.2% (60.0–79.9%)	27.0% (18.4–38.3%)	1.70% (1.51–1.89%)
Adults	48.2% (35.2–60.3%)	50.4% (38.3–63.4%)	1.44% (1.25–1.66%)
Elders	46.2% (33.0–60.8%)	52.6% (38.1–65.8%)	1.15% (0.98–1.32%)
Overall	47.3% (34.8–59.5%)	51.4% (39.2–63.9%)	1.30% (1.16–1.44%)

Proportions of TB cases developing from recent infection, remote infection, and post-treatment recurrence are reported by age groups. We calculated medians and intervals between 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles (in brackets) of the proportions from the 1000 posterior parameter sets of the ‘full’ model. Incident cases in the ‘recent infection’ category develop TB through primary progression within 2 years of infection, while those in the ‘remote infection’ category develop the disease through reactivation after two or more years of infection. TB cases occurring within 3 years of treatment completion, either from relapse or reinfection, are included in the ‘post-treatment recurrence’ category

ISSN: 1471-2334