Table 1 Overview of the model parameters

Quantity

Median (95% CI)

Distribution

Source

Latent period (ε)

1.4 days ([0:7] days)

Exponential

[21, 60]

Pre-symptomatic period (θ)

2.4 days ([0:13] days)

Exponential

[21, 60]

Children infectivity (wrt adults)

0.5

—

[4, 23, 28, 61]

Proportion asymptomatic (p_a)

0.5

—

[28, 61–63]

Proportion mild symptoms (p_m)

0.5/0.476 (children/adults)

—

[23, 28, 61, 62]

Proportion severe symptoms (p_s)

0 /0.024 (children/adults)

—

[9]

Symptomatic/asymptomatic period (μ)

2.4 days ([0:13] days)

Exponential

[53]

Symptom onset to hospitalization (σ)

4.7 days ([0:17] days)

Weibull

[53]

Hospital admission to death (ξ)

4 days ([1:9] days)

Log-logistic

[53]

Hospital admission to recovery (τ)

5 days ([1:10] days)

Weibull

[53]

Fitted parameter

Point estimate

(95% CI)

Per-contact

transmission probability (β)

0.0449

[0.0446:0.0451]

Number of initial infected

14480

[12750:16217]

Lockdown reduction in number of contacts

85%

[81%:89%]

Time to reach full compliance

7 days

[7:7] days