From: Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ireland under mitigation
Parameters | Definitions | Prior or constant value | Posterior Median, [95%CI] |
---|---|---|---|
I1(0) | Initial condition | U[5,100] | 42, [18–81] |
S(0) | Initial condition | N = 5,176,000 | |
E1(0), E2(0), I2(0), A1(0), A2(0), | Initial conditions | Use of steady-state conditions a | |
Other Initial Conditions | Initials conditions | 0 | |
β(0) | Initial condition of the transmission rate | 0.70 | |
ν | Volatility of the Brownian process | U[0.05,015] | 0.133, [0.107–0.149] |
1/σ | average duration of the incubation | tN[4,0.1,3,5] | 3.99, [3.80–4.19] |
1/γ | average duration of infectious period | tN[6,0.2,4.5,7.5] | 6.00, [5.61–6.40] |
1/κ | average hospitalized period | U [8, 20] | 13.60, [12.15–15.15] |
1/δ | average time in ICU | U [8, 20] | 17.36, [14.86–19.57] |
τA | fraction of asymptomatics | U[0.30,0.70] | 0.487, [0.310–0.685] |
τH | fraction of hospitalization | U[0.02,0.10] | 0.027, [0.020–0.046] |
τI | fraction of ICU admission | U[0.05,0.15] | 0.030, [0.023–0.045] |
τ□ | death rate | U[0.10,0.70] | 0.411, [0.365–0.458] |
q1 | reduction of transmissibility | 1.5. q2 but≤1 | |
q2 | reduction of transmissibility | 0.55 [8] | |
qI | reduction of ICU admission fraction | 0.10 | |
qD | reduction of the death rate | 0.20 | |
ρI | reporting rate for symptomatic infectious | U[0.02, 0.15] | 0.092, [0.062–0.142] |
ρH | reporting rate for hospitalized people | U[0.95,1] | 0.971, [0.951–0.997] |
ρICU | reporting rate for the ICU admission | 0.96 | |
ρG | reporting rate for hospital discharge | 0.96 | |
ρD | reporting rate for death | 0.98 |