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Table 3 Logistic model results

From: A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú

 

Season

El Niño

OR (95% CI)

Stage 1

S

5.17 (3.94, 7.22)

W

5.39 (4.05, 7.67)

S

Y

5.56 (4.18, 7.94)

S

N

3.74 (2.68, 5.70)

W

Y

5.19 (3.77, 7.83)

W

N

5.33 (3.97, 7.75)

Stage 2

S

3.74 (3.00, 4.89)

W

3.60 (2.91, 4.64)

S

Y

3.69 (2.95, 4.82)

S

N

2.89 (2.28, 3.87)

W

Y

3.45 (2.72, 4.56)

W

N

3.46 (2.78, 4.51)

Stage 3

S

1.57 (1.35, 1.84)

W

1.62 (1.41, 1.89)

S

Y

1.50 (1.29, 1.75)

S

N

1.54 (1.27, 1.88)

W

Y

1.49 (1.26, 1.79)

W

N

1.54 (1.33, 1.80)

  1. Outcome parameterized as one or more outbreaks in a given district over January 2016–September 2018. Stage 1: index case potential; stage 2: outbreak receptivity; stage 3: epidemic potential. OR odds ratio, CI posterior credible interval, S summer, W winter, Y yes, N no