Table 1 Cholera projection scenarios for 2020–2070 at decadal intervals: Scenario 1 (S1), a “best-case” scenario; Scenario 2 (S2), an intermediate scenario and Scenario 3 (S3), a “worst-case” scenario. The scenarios were projected over 50 years from 2020 to 2070. HWC = high withdraw countries including MDG, LBY, SDN, MRT and MAR
Year | Drought | Temperature | Poverty | Water withdrawal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario 1 | 2020 | 2000–2016 average | 2000–2016 average | 2016 | 2016 |
2030 | 2000–2016 average | Reduce 2016 by 50% | 2016 | ||
2040 | 2000–2016 average | Reduce 2016 by 50% | 2016 | ||
2050 | RCP4.5 2050 | Medium value between 2030 & 2070 | 20% increase and 20% decrease for HWC | ||
2060 | RCP4.5 2050 | Medium value between 2030 and 2070 | 20% increase and 20% decrease for HWC | ||
2070 | RCP4.5 2070 | Poverty elimination (0%) | 20% increase and 20% decrease for HWC | ||
Scenario 2 | 2020 | Median value between S1 and S2 | 2000–2016 average | 2016 | 2016 |
2030 | 2000–2016 average | 2016 | 2016 | ||
2040 | 2000–2016 average | 2016 | 2016 | ||
2050 | RCP6.0 2050 | Reduce 2016 by 50% | 10% increase and 10% decrease for HWC | ||
2060 | RCP6.0 2050 | Medium value between 2050 and 2070 | 10% increase and 10% decrease for HWC | ||
2070 | RCP6.0 207 | Poverty elimination (0%) | 10% increase and 10% decrease for HWC | ||
Scenario 3 | 2020 | [(Coefficient*4) + 2016 value] | 2000–2016 average | 2016 | 2016 |
2030 | [(Coefficient*10) + 2020 value] | 2000–2016 average | 2016 | 2016 | |
2040 | [(Coefficient*10) + 2030 value] | 2000–2016 average | 2016 | 2016 | |
2050 | [(Coefficient*10) + 2040 value] | RCP8.5 2050 | 2016 | 5% increase and 5% decrease for HWC | |
2060 | [(Coefficient*10) + 2050 value] | RCP8.5 2050 | Medium value between 2050 and 2070 | 5% increase and 5% decrease for HWC | |
2070 | [(Coefficient*10) + 2060 value] | RCP8.5 2070 | Reduce 2016 value by 50% | 5% increase and 5% decrease for HWC |