Parameter | Description | Value (Range) | Refs |
---|---|---|---|

g
_{
E
}
| Rate of transition from latent to prodromal |
1/12 days^{-1}
| [14] |

g
_{
P
}
| Rate of transition from prodromal to infectious |
1/2.5 days^{-1}
| [15] |

g
_{
I
}
| Rate of transition from infectious to removed |
1/8.6 days^{-1}
| [16] |

δ
| Case fatality risk | 30% | [23, 33] |

θ
| Probability of case isolation success | 90% | [21] |

g
_{
Q
}
| Rate of transition from isolated to removed |
1/20 days^{-1}
| [5] |

ϵ | Probability of contact tracing success | 80% | [5] |

ϵ_{1}
| Vaccine efficacy when susceptible | 97.5% | [14] |

ϵ_{2}
| Vaccine efficacy when latent | 30% | [23] |

g
_{
O
}
| Rate of transition from observed to removed or vaccinated |
1/15 days^{-1}
| [5] |

γ | Proportion of population contraindicated for mass vaccination | 30% | [25] |

E
_{0}
| Number of index cases | 10 | see text |

Number of index cases for secondary outbreak | 1 | see text | |

I
_{trig}
| Number of clinical cases prior to detection | 4 | see text |

Number of clinical cases prior to detection for secondary outbreak | 1 | see text | |

δ
_{
V
}
| Vaccine fatality risk |
10^{-5}(0 -- 10^{-5})
| [24] |

R
_{0}
| Basic reproductive ratio | 5 (3 -- 7) | [14] |

R
_{
P
}
| Prodromal type reproductive ratio | 0.5 (0.1 -- 1.5) | [15, 17] |

κ
| Movement reductions when infectious | 0.9 (0 -- 1) | [5] |

v
| Rate of mass vaccination |
N/7 (see Figure 3(c))
| see text |

N
| Population size of region |
10^{5}(see Figure 3(a))
| [28, 29] |

ξ
| Region outwardness | 0.4 (see Figure 3(d)) | [27, 30] |

M
| Number of regions of same type as outbreak region | n/a (see Figure 3(a)) | [28, 29] |

M
_{0}
| Number of regions at relevant scale initially infected | 1 (1 -- 10) | see text |

n
| Neighbourhood size (contacts per individual) | 17 (5 -- 50) | [18, 19] |

ϕ
| Clustering coefficient | 0 (0 -- 0.5) | see text |