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Table 1 Model parameters, together with baseline value and range if varied during analysis.

From: Contingency planning for a deliberate release of smallpox in Great Britain - the role of geographical scale and contact structure

Parameter Description Value (Range) Refs
g E Rate of transition from latent to prodromal 1/12 days-1 [14]
g P Rate of transition from prodromal to infectious 1/2.5 days-1 [15]
g I Rate of transition from infectious to removed 1/8.6 days-1 [16]
δ Case fatality risk 30% [23, 33]
θ Probability of case isolation success 90% [21]
g Q Rate of transition from isolated to removed 1/20 days-1 [5]
ϵ Probability of contact tracing success 80% [5]
ϵ1 Vaccine efficacy when susceptible 97.5% [14]
ϵ2 Vaccine efficacy when latent 30% [23]
g O Rate of transition from observed to removed or vaccinated 1/15 days-1 [5]
γ Proportion of population contraindicated for mass vaccination 30% [25]
E 0 Number of index cases 10 see text
Number of index cases for secondary outbreak 1 see text
I trig Number of clinical cases prior to detection 4 see text
Number of clinical cases prior to detection for secondary outbreak 1 see text
δ V Vaccine fatality risk 10-5(0 -- 10-5) [24]
R 0 Basic reproductive ratio 5 (3 -- 7) [14]
R P Prodromal type reproductive ratio 0.5 (0.1 -- 1.5) [15, 17]
κ Movement reductions when infectious 0.9 (0 -- 1) [5]
v Rate of mass vaccination N/7 (see Figure 3(c)) see text
N Population size of region 105(see Figure 3(a)) [28, 29]
ξ Region outwardness 0.4 (see Figure 3(d)) [27, 30]
M Number of regions of same type as outbreak region n/a (see Figure 3(a)) [28, 29]
M 0 Number of regions at relevant scale initially infected 1 (1 -- 10) see text
n Neighbourhood size (contacts per individual) 17 (5 -- 50) [18, 19]
ϕ Clustering coefficient 0 (0 -- 0.5) see text
  1. Either references are given, or the parameter value is discussed in the main text. Values referenced to [5] are typically also based on expert opinion from discussions with the Department of Health. [34] provides an example of the considerations involved in estimating these values