Fig. 1

Model structure. The model assesses the impact and cost-effectiveness of a HPV vaccination on HIV- and HIV+ subpopulations, considering the HPV natural history with different transition probabilities. The left panel shows the natural history of HPV infection, with overlay of CC screening and vaccination. At any time during the cohort’s life, subjects can move from the left panel (HPV natural history, HIV-) to the right panel (HPV natural history, HIV+). CIN, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; CIN1, CIN grade 1; CIN2/3, CIN grade 2 or 3; CIN1-Onc, oncogenic HPV types caused CIN1; det, subjects with disease detected through screening (same pathways but different probabilities), HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; HIV-, HIV-negative; HIV+, HIV-positive; HPV, human papillomavirus; Pap, Papanicolaou smear test; HPV-Onc, oncogenic HPV types