Fig. 2

Predicted risk of experiencing a case importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). a and b Distribution of estimated risks of importation by country based on a the risk model that used effective distance only and b model that used the effective distance as well as religion and incidence data of MERS in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Optimal threshold probability was 11.2 % for panel A and 6.9 % for panel b. c and d Receiver operator characteristic curves of predicted risk of importing MERS cases. Panel c shows the evaluation results of the risk model that used effective distance only, while d shows those of the model that used the effective distance as well as religion and incidence data of MERS in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia