Table 2 Training set and Validation Set of the Epidemic Trend in Hubei Province
Actual | Forecast | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key Metrics | S1 | S2 | S3 | ||||
Inc of Confirmed Cases | −9.0% | − 10% | −10% | − 5% | −5% | −1% | − 1% |
MO Release Rate | 16.0% | 17.0% | 10.50% | 17.0% | 10.50% | 17.0% | 10.50% |
Peak of Active Cases | 50,633 | 39,612 | 47,148 | 44,082 | 55,150 | 62,041 | 85,502 |
Peak Date | 2020/2/16 | 2020/2/23 | 2020/2/28 | 2020/3/1 | 2020/3/7 | 2020/4/6 | 2020/4/14 |
Peak of Severe Cases | 9289 | 5753 | 6845 | 6400 | 8004 | 9000 | 12,402 |
Peak Date | 2020/2/16 | 2020/2/23 | 2020/2/28 | 2020/3/1 | 2020/3/7 | 2020/4/6 | 2020/4/14 |
Peak of Critical Cases | 2492 | 1786 | 2124 | 1986 | 2484 | 2793 | 3849 |
Peak Case | 2020/2/21 | 2020/2/23 | 2020/2/28 | 2020/3/1 | 2020/3/7 | 2020/4/6 | 2020/4/14 |
Total Cases at Feb. End | 66,907 | 54,189 | 64,064 | 60,192 | 71,596 | 68,045 | 81,284 |