Seasonality of influenza-like illness and short-term forecasting model in Chongqing from 2010 to 2022

BMC Infectious Diseases

Table 1 Optimal SARIMAX Models’ Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

	All Number of Patients	Outpatient and Emergency	Inpatient	Average Length of Stay Per Month
Train
All Age	0.1271	0.1452	0.1004	0.0417
0–1 years old group	0.1166	0.1565	0.1623	0.0450
2–4 years old group	0.2062	0.2356	0.2933	0.0779
5–64 years old group	0.1593	0.1748	0.1151	0.0738
≥ 65 years old group	0.1376	0.1494	0.2000	0.1848
Test
All Age	0.1903	0.1889	0.1680	0.1301
0–1 years old group	0.2850	0.3433	0.6944	0.1908
2–4 years old group	0.3635	0.3403	0.3880	0.0800
5–64 years old group	0.1248	0.1288	0.1444	0.1787
≥ 65 years old group	0.1867	0.1730	0.1540	0.1513

ISSN: 1471-2334